New forecasts for demand for rail freight to 2015 and 2030 are published by the Rail Freight Group and Freight Transport Association.
The forecasts show a 30% increase in tonne km from 2006 to 2015 and more than doubling by 2030. However, the growth in intermodal traffic is forecast to be very much higher: more than doubling by 2015 and a five-fold increase by 2030. This reflects continuing expansion of trade from continental Europe and further afield, plus a significant use of rail to and from new rail-connected warehouses.
These figures update the 2006 forecasts and have been produced using the GB Freight Model used by the Department of Transport. The rail freight industry, operators and customers have also been fully consulted and support these findings.
The forecasts have also been allocated to specific rail routes used at present and demand compared with existing capacity assuming no change in the number of passenger trains on those routes. Unsurprisingly, the main rail freight flows are on the routes between centres of economic activity and to and from ports.
By 2030, there is forecast to be shortfalls in capacity on many routes, even assuming no increase in passenger train numbers. The greatest shortfalls are on the following routes, noted in trains per day (sum of both directions).